Iran-US Deal Pushes Gas Prices Below $4

The deal's immediate effect on supply was significant. Eleven tankers carrying a combined 20 million barrels of crude oil departed Iran's Chabahar port within days of the agreement, according to Bloomberg shipping data. This sudden injection of supply drove Brent crude, the international benchmark, down to approximately $78 per barrel. However, analysts at LPL Financial noted that the price relief may owe as much to collapsing Chinese demand as to the diplomacy itself. China's crude imports fell to 6.7 million barrels per day last month — nearly 40% below its 2025 average — a reduction equivalent to the combined oil consumption of Germany and France. Strategic reserve releases and new production from Brazil, Guyana, and the United States also cushioned the market from a more severe supply shock.

Despite the positive momentum, uncertainty persists. Follow-up peace negotiations scheduled for Geneva were abruptly postponed, and a statement from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) briefly claimed the Strait of Hormuz had been closed again before Iran's Foreign Ministry clarified it remained open. Tanker traffic through the strait has resumed only gradually, remaining below pre-war levels. Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, predicted the national average could fall below $3 per gallon by late 2026 or early 2027 — provided the diplomatic framework holds and Iran is permitted to sell oil on global markets. Traders remain cautious, with analysts warning that any return of strong Chinese buying could sharply reverse recent price gains.