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Early 2026 Hurricane Forecasts Show Below-Average Season

natureMay 7, 2026·374 words·3 min read

The first two major forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season have arrived, and both project a slightly below-average year. AccuWeather, releasing its outlook on March 26, anticipates 11 to 16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Colorado State University (CSU), whose meteorologists are widely considered the earliest reliable voice in tropical forecasting, followed on April 9 with an estimate of 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

The main reason for fewer storms is the return of El Niño. El Niño is a weather pattern. It happens when the Pacific Ocean warms up near the equator. Strong winds high in the air then make it harder for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic. The Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is likely to arrive between May and July. But scientists say the season can still surprise people. Warm waters near the coast could create storms quickly.

Even with fewer storms expected, scientists tell Americans to be ready. AccuWeather expects three to five storms to hit the United States. Areas with the highest risk are the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has named May 3 to May 9 as Hurricane Preparedness Week. People should check their insurance, plan how to leave their homes safely, and store food and water before the season begins.

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