Early 2026 Hurricane Forecasts Show Below-Average Season

The principal reason behind both forecasts is the expected emergence of El Niño, the warmer phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern defined by shifts in sea-surface temperatures and rainfall in the equatorial Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center estimates a 61 percent chance that El Niño will arrive between May and July and persist through year-end. During El Niño years, strong upper-level winds across the Atlantic disrupt storm formation, generally yielding fewer and weaker hurricanes. Even so, CSU co-author Delián Colón-Burgos described Atlantic sea-surface temperature trends as a "mixed signal" that adds uncertainty, and lead author Phil Klotzbach cautioned that "curveballs" could still emerge. AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva separately warned that warm waters could spark "homegrown" storms close to land, leaving coastal residents little time to react.

Despite the modest projections, both teams urged Americans to prepare. CSU forecasters estimate a 32 percent probability that a major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline this year and a 35 percent probability for the Caribbean. AccuWeather expects three to five direct U.S. impacts, with the northern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas at greatest risk. Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, reminded the public that "it only takes one storm to cause major damage," while CSU co-author Delián Colón-Burgos urged coastal communities to "take it seriously" regardless of the statistics. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has designated May 3 to May 9 as National Hurricane Preparedness Week, encouraging households to review insurance coverage, identify evacuation routes, and stock emergency supplies before the season begins on June 1.