Early 2026 Hurricane Forecasts Predict Below-Average Atlantic Season

The main reason both forecasts predict a quieter season is the expected return of El Niño, the warmer phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño is a climate pattern in which the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean grows warmer than usual. The Climate Prediction Center says there is a 61 percent chance El Niño will arrive between May and July. During El Niño years, strong winds high in the atmosphere disrupt the formation of Atlantic hurricanes. Even so, CSU's Phil Klotzbach has warned of possible "curveballs," and AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva has noted that warm ocean waters could spark "homegrown" storms close to the coast.

Despite the lower projections, both teams urge Americans to prepare. CSU estimates a 32 percent chance that a major hurricane will strike the U.S. coast this year and a 35 percent chance for the Caribbean. AccuWeather expects three to five direct U.S. impacts, especially along the northern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has named May 3 to May 9 as National Hurricane Preparedness Week, encouraging households to review insurance, plan evacuation routes, and stock emergency supplies before the season begins.