Early 2026 Hurricane Forecasts Predict Below-Average Atlantic Season
The first two major forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season have been released, and both predict slightly fewer storms than usual. AccuWeather, in its outlook on March 26, expects 11 to 16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) . Colorado State University (CSU) followed on April 9 with an estimate of 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. Both numbers fall below the long-term average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes per year. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and peaks between August and October.
The main reason both forecasts predict a quieter season is the expected return of El Niño, the warmer phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) . El Niño is a climate pattern in which the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean grows warmer than usual. The Climate Prediction Center says there is a 61 percent chance El Niño will arrive between May and July. During El Niño years, strong winds high in the atmosphere disrupt the formation of Atlantic hurricanes. Even so, CSU's Phil Klotzbach has warned of possible curveballs, and AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva has noted that warm ocean waters could spark homegrown storms close to the coast.
Despite the lower projections, both teams urge Americans to prepare. CSU estimates a 32 percent chance that a major hurricane will strike the U.S. coast this year and a 35 percent chance for the Caribbean. AccuWeather expects three to five direct U.S. impacts, especially along the northern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has named May 3 to May 9 as National Hurricane Preparedness Week, encouraging households to review insurance, plan evacuation routes, and stock emergency supplies before the season begins.
