CDC Warns Congo Ebola Could Hit 20,000 Cases

The current outbreak, driven by the rare Bundibugyo strain of the virus, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO) in May, although some experts suspect transmission began as early as February. Ebola spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids such as blood, vomit and saliva, and the Bundibugyo strain carries no approved vaccine or specific treatment, with fatality rates of roughly 30–50%. Response efforts have been further complicated by armed conflict between the Congolese government, the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group and the Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Force, which has displaced large populations. CDC incident manager Dr Satish Pillai said that without strong public health interventions, "an outbreak of that scale is possible", though Jennifer Nuzzo of Brown University's Pandemic Center cautioned that "it's really hard to make an accurate projection when you have limited data".

The projection has prompted swift precautionary measures abroad. In the United Kingdom, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has instructed National Health Service (NHS) hospitals to stockpile personal protective equipment (PPE), train staff and isolate any suspected patient who has travelled from affected regions within the past 21 days. Public-information posters are appearing at Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester airports, as well as St Pancras and Birmingham stations. The United States, meanwhile, has barred non-citizens who have recently visited Congo, Uganda or South Sudan and is screening returning travellers at four designated airports. Officials caution that previous CDC models have overshot reality — its 2014 worst-case estimate of 1.4 million infections proved more than 50 times too high — but warn that vigilance and rapid isolation remain essential.